Pope Leo XIV condemned the US missile strike on an Iranian school, with the market for Iran striking Israel by April 30 at ...

Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, trapping sailors and halting transit. Fewer than 10 ships to transit from April 13-19 at ...

US warns of possible strikes on Iran's infrastructure if no nuclear deal is reached. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April at 1 ...

The US captured an Iranian vessel in the Gulf of Oman, and Tehran has threatened retaliation. The ceasefire-by-April-30 ...

US-Iran tensions rise, affecting Bank of Japan rate cut speculation. Rate cut after April 2026 meeting at 0.1% YES.

US-Iran diplomatic gaps are narrowing. No qualifying meeting by June 30 at 3.7% YES; Bitcoin above $62K on April 18 at 99.9% ...

Oil prices rose due to Middle East instability and an uncertain US-Iran ceasefire. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April at 1.4 ...

Rumen Radev's Progressive Bulgaria leads with 44.5% in the parliamentary election. Radev to be next prime minister at 95.3% YES.

Judge blocks Trump's pipeline restart, complicating oil sanction strategy. Odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction ...

Shipping in the Persian Gulf has dropped to 5 ships daily amid an IRGC blockade. Fewer than 10 ships transiting the Strait of ...

Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, lowering the chance of a US blockade lift announcement by May 31, 2026 to 76% YES.

Bitcoin dropped below $74K after Iran-U.S. peace talks stalled and the Strait of Hormuz closed. On Polymarket, the likelihood ...